SunCoke Energy (SunCoke Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is SunCoke Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SunCoke Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SunCoke Energy (SunCoke Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » SunCoke Energy Inc (NYSE:SXC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S01:Germany

Address

1011 Warrenville Road, Suite 600, Lisle, IL, USA, 60532

Website

https://www.suncoke.com

SunCoke Energy Inc operates as an independent producer of coke in the Americas. The company operates through three segments: Domestic Coke, Brazil Coke, and Logistics. It offers metallurgical and thermal coal. The company also provides handling and/or mixing services to steel, coke, electric utility, coal producing, and other manufacturing-based customers.

Executives

Phillip Michael Hardesty	officer: Senior Vice President	SUNCOKE ENERGY, INC., 1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, STE 600, LISLE IL 60532
Andrei Alexander Mikhalevsky	director	1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, STE 600, LISLE IL 60532
Michael Ward Lewis	director	2551 GLEN EAGLES DRIVE, OLYMPIA FIELDS IL 60461
Della Ratta Ralph M Jr	director	1690 CHAGRIN RIVER ROAD, GATES MILLS OH 44040
Arthur F Anton	director	29500 SOLON ROAD, SOLON OH 44139
Martha Z. Carnes	director	6316 WINDFERN ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040
Mark W. Marinko	officer: SR VP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORP., 2122 YORK ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Katherine T Gates	officer: Sr VP & General Counsel	1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, SUITE 600, LISLE IL 60532
Bonnie M Edeus	officer: Vice President & Controller	1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, STE 600, LISLE IL 60532
James E Sweetnam	director	DANA HOLDING CORPORATION, 3939 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, MAUMEE OH 43537
John W Rowe	director
John F Quanci	officer: Vice President, Technology and	1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD STE 600, LISLE IL 60532
Michael G Rippey	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O OLYMPIC STEEL, INC., 22901 MILLCREEK BLVD., HIGHLAND HILLS OH 44122
Susan R. Landahl	director	24545 S. MOORMAN AVENUE, CHANNAHON IL 60410
Mangrove Partners Fund (cayman), Ltd.	10 percent owner	MAPLES CORP. SVCS, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, S. CHURCH STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104