Sensient Technologies (Sensient Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Sensient Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sensient Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sensient Technologies (Sensient Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Sensient Technologies Corp (NYSE:SXT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SSF:Germany

Address

777 East Wisconsin Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202-5304

Website

https://www.sensient.com

Sensient Technologies Corp manufactures and markets natural and synthetic colors, flavors, and other specialty ingredients. The company has a widespread network of facilities around the globe, and its customers operate across a variety of end markets. Sensient's offerings are predominantly applied to consumer-facing products, including food and beverage, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, nutraceutical and personal care industries. The Company's principal products are flavors, flavor enhancers, ingredients, extracts, and bionutrients, essential oils, dehydrated vegetables and other food ingredients, natural and synthetic food and beverage colors and others. The company's three reportable segments were the Flavors & Extracts Group and the Color Group and, Asia Pacific Group.

Executives

E. Craig Mitchell	officer: Pres, Flavors & Fragrances Grp	777 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Anstalt Winder	10 percent owner	ZOLLSTRASSE 16, SCHAAN N2 9494
Investment Anstalt Winder	10 percent owner	ZOLLSTRASSE 16, SCHAAN N2 9494
Winder Pte. Ltd.	10 percent owner	6 BATTERY ROAD #19-01A, SINGAPORE U0 049909
Cunha Kathleen Da	director	777 E. WISCONSIN AVE., SUITE 1100, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Winder Investment Pte Ltd	10 percent owner	19-01A 6 BATTERY ROAD, SINGAPORE U0 049909
Sharad P Jain	director	777 E. WISCONSIN AVE., SUITE 1100, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Freemont Capital Pte Ltd	10 percent owner	19-01A 6 BATTERY ROAD, SINGAPORE U0 049909
Foundation Haldor	10 percent owner	ZOLLSTRASSE 16, SCHAAN N2 9494
Essie Whitelaw	director	777 E WISCONSIN AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Elaine R Wedral	director	C/O BALCHEM CORP, P O BOX 600, NEW HAMPTON NY 10958
Paul Manning	officer: President, Color Group	777 E. WISCONSIN AVE., MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Joseph Carleone	director	3883 HOWARD HUGHES PKWY, SUITE 700, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Carol R Jackson	director	777 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Thierry Hoang	officer: VP, Asia Pacific Group	25B CHANCERY LANE, SINGAPORE U0 309515