Teledyne Technologies (Teledyne Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Teledyne Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Teledyne Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Teledyne Technologies (Teledyne Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Teledyne Technologies Inc (NYSE:TDY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TYZ:Germany TYZ:Germany

Address

1049 Camino Dos Rios, Thousand Oaks, CA, USA, 91360-2362

Website

https://www.teledyne.com

Teledyne Technologies Inc sells technologies for industrial markets. Roughly a fourth of Teledyne's revenue comes from contracts with the United States government. The firm operates in four segments: instrumentation, digital imaging, aerospace and defense electronics, and engineered systems. The instrumentation segment provides monitoring instruments primarily for marine and environmental applications. The digital imaging segment contributes the largest proportion of revenue, and includes image sensors and cameras for industrial, government, and medical customers. The aerospace and defense electronics segment provides electronic components and communication products for aircraft. The engineered systems segment provides solutions for defense, space, environmental, and energy applications.

Executives

Sue Main	officer: VP & Controller	TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, 1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Jason Vanwees	officer: VP, Strategy, Mergers & Acq.	1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Robert Mehrabian	officer: Chairman, Pres. & CEO	C/O TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, 1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Von Schack Wesley W	director	ENERGY EAST CORP, PO BOX 3287, ITHACA NY 14852-3287
Michael T Smith	director	190 NW SPANISH RIVER BOULEVARD, SUITE 101, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Jane Cecile Sherburne	director	ONE WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Melanie Susan Cibik	officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel & Sec.	1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Stephen Finis Blackwood	officer: Senior VP & Treasurer	1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Bobb George C Iii	officer: See Remarks	1039 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Charles Crocker	director	ONE POST ST, STE 2500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kenneth C Dahlberg	director	SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORP., 10260 CAMPUS POINT DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Cynthia Y Belak	officer: Vice President and Controller	1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360
Simon M Lorne	director	666 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10103
Vincent J Morales	director	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Aldo Pichelli	officer: Segment President & COO	TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, 1049 CAMINO DOS RIOS, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91360