Tesco (TESO) Predictability Rank

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What is Tesco Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tesco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tesco Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tesco (TESO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Tesco Corp (NAS:TESO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.tescocorp.com

Tesco Corp is engaged in designing, manufacturing and service delivery of technology based solutions for the upstream energy industry. Its products and service offerings consist of equipment sales and services to drilling contractors.

Executives

Roy Mcniven	officer: Vice President, TCUS	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Elijio V Serrano	director	24955 INTERSTATE 45 NORTH, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Michael W Sutherlin	director	7374 SE 71ST STREET, MERCER ISLAND WA 98040
John Dielwart	director	5320 LEGACY DR., PLANO TX 75024
Rose M Robeson	director	370 17TH STREET, SUITE 2775, DENVER CO 80202
Sloan Thomas B Jr	officer: Vice President	3993 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY N., STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77043
Julio M Quintana	director	3993 W. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY N., STE. 100, HOUSTON TX 77043
John T Reynolds	director, 10 percent owner	C/O C/O LIME ROCK PARTNERS, 518 RIVER SIDE AVE BLDG 11 2ND FL, WESTPORT CT 06880
Lime Rock Partners V Lp	10 percent owner	C/O LIME ROCK MANAGEMENT LP, 274 RIVERSIDE AVE, 3RD FLOOR, WESTPORT CT 06880
Lrp V Luxembourg Holdings S.a R.l.	10 percent owner	VERTIGO NAOS BUILDING, 6, RUE EUGENE RUPPERT, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2453
John U Clarke	director	PENN VIRGINIA CORPORATION, FOUR RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER, STE 200, RADNOR PA 19087
Clifton Thomas Weatherford	director	1001 E. HILLSDALE BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Nigel M Lakey	officer: Sr. VP, Marketing & Bus. Dev.	10260 WESTHEIMER RD., HOUSTON TX 77042
Anthony Tripodo	officer: Exec. V. P. & CFO	3505 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY NORTH, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043
Capital Management Oss	10 percent owner	598 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022