What is TG Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
TG Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
TG Therapeutics (TG Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3020 Carrington Mill boulevard, Suite 475, Morrisville, NC, USA, 27560
TG Therapeutics Inc is a fully-integrated, commercial-stage, biopharmaceutical company focused on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for B-cell diseases. The company has received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for BRIUMVI (ublituximab-xiiy) for the treatment of adult patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS). and the company is developing TG-1701 (BTK inhibitor) and TG-1801 (anti-CD47/CD19 bispecific mAb) for B-cell disorders which are under Phase 1 trial.
Executives
| Laurence N Charney |
director |
MARVEL ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 417 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Sean A Power |
officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer |
787 SEVENTH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Michael S Weiss |
director, officer: CEO and President |
750 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Sagar Lonial |
director |
C/O TG THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 GANSEVOORT STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Yann Echelard |
director |
C/O LFB BIOTECHNOLOGIES, S.A.S., 3, AVENUE DES TROPIQUES LES ULIS, COURTABOEUF I0 91958 |
| Ra Capital Management, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Kenneth Hoberman |
director |
750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10024 |
| Daniel Hume |
director |
3 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| William James Kennedy |
director |
C/O XTL BIOPHARMACEUTICALS LTD, 711 EXECUTIVE BLVD., SUITE Q, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989 |
| Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Rajeev M. Shah |
10 percent owner |
200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Peter Kolchinsky |
10 percent owner |
200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Lfb Biotechnologies S.a.s.u. |
10 percent owner |
3 AVENUE DES TROPIQUES, LES ULIS, COURTABOEUF I0 91958 |
| Mark Schoenebaum |
director |
787 SEVENTH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Opus Point Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
787 7TH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
TGTX has been successfully added to your