Gentherm (Gentherm) Predictability Rank

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What is Gentherm Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gentherm Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gentherm (Gentherm) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Gentherm Inc (NAS:THRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QA4A:Germany

Address

21680 Haggerty Road, Northville, MI, USA, 48167

Website

https://www.gentherm.com

Gentherm Inc is an automotive parts manufacturer. The business activities of the group function through the Automotive and Medical segments. The vast majority of the firm's revenue comes from the Automotive segment, which includes automotive climate comfort systems, automotive cable systems, battery performance solutions, and automotive electronics and software systems. The medical segment is comprised of the results from the patient temperature management business in the medical industry. Its geographical segments are the United States, China, South Korea, Germany, Japan, the Czech Republic, and other countries.

Executives

Kenneth E Washington	director	6555 STATE HWY 161, IRVING TX 75039
Thomas Stocker	officer: SVP and General Manager	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Rafael Barkas	officer: SVP, Global Ops & Supply Chain	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Vishnu Sundaram	officer: Chief Technology Officer	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Kauffman Wayne S Iii	officer: VP and General Counsel	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Breisacher Nicholas	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Barbara J Runyon	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Matthew Fisch	officer: SVP & Chief Technology Officer	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Yijing Brentano	officer: Senior VP IR and Corp Comm	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Phillip Eyler	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O HARMAN INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRIES, INC, 400 ATLANTIC STREET, STAMFORD CT 06901
Jaymi Wilson	officer: SVP, Global Sales	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Jennifer L. Zoldos	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Paul Cameron Giberson	officer: Sr. VP Sales	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Matteo Anversa	officer: Ex VP, CFO & Treasurer	1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
Elizabeth Meter	director	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167