Titan Machinery (Titan Machinery) Predictability Rank

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What is Titan Machinery Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Titan Machinery Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Titan Machinery (Titan Machinery) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Titan Machinery Inc (NAS:TITN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3TY:Germany

Address

644 East Beaton Drive, West Fargo, ND, USA, 58078-2648

Website

https://www.titanmachinery.com

Titan Machinery Inc owns and operates a network of full-service agricultural and construction equipment stores. The company sells and repairs agricultural equipment, including machinery and attachments for large-scale farming and home and gardening purposes, as well as construction equipment. It operates through the following segments: The Agriculture segment sells, services, and rents machinery and related parts and attachments, for uses ranging from large-scale farming to home and garden use, The construction segment sells, services, and rents machinery, and related parts and attachments, for uses ranging from heavy construction to light industrial machinery use, and the International segment sells services, rents machinery, and related parts.

Executives

Stan K. Erickson	director	10380 28TH AVENUE NORTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Robert Larsen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Frank Anglin	director	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Tony Christianson	director
David Joseph Meyer	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Bryan J Knutson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O TITAN MACHINERY INC., 644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Mark P. Kalvoda	officer: Chief Financial Officer	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Bradley Crews	director	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Christine E Hamilton	director	225 S MAIN AVE, P O BOX 5000, SIOUX FALLS SD 57117
John W Henderson	director	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Jody L Horner	director	C/O TITAN MACHINERY, 644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Richard L Mack	director	9590 SKY LANE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Theodore M Crosbie	director	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
Peter J. Christianson	director, officer: President and CFO	644 EAST BEATON DRIVE, WEST FARGO ND 58078
James Irwin	director	10543 EAST MARK LANE, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85262