What is Telkonet Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Telkonet Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Telkonet (Telkonet) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
20800 Swenson Drive, Suite 175, Waukesha, WI, USA, 53186
Telkonet Inc is the creator of the EcoSmart and the Rhapsody Platforms of intelligent automation solutions designed to optimize energy efficiency, comfort, and analytics in support of the emerging Internet of Things. The platforms are deployed in the hospitality, educational, governmental, and other commercial markets, and are specified by engineers, HVAC professionals, building owners, and building operators.
Executives
| Piercarlo Gramaglia |
director |
VIALE L. ZANUSSI, 3, PORDENONE L6 33170 |
| Steven E Quick |
director |
250 N PARK BLVD, GLEN ELLYN IL 60137 |
| Holding Sarl Meti |
10 percent owner |
8 RUE DE BEGGEN, LUXEMBOURG N4 L 1220 |
| Vda Holding S.a. |
10 percent owner |
8 RUE DE BEGGEN, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1220 |
| Vda Group S.p.a. |
10 percent owner |
VIALE L. ZANUSSI, 3, PORDENONE L6 33170 |
| Paulis Flavio De |
10 percent owner |
8 RUE DE BEGGEN, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1220 |
| Peter T Kross |
director |
248 GROSSE POINTE BLVD, GROSSE POINTE FARMS MI 48236 |
| Leland D. Blatt |
director |
20800 SWENSON DR., SUITE 175, WAUKESHA WI 53186 |
| Arthur E Byrnes |
director |
20800 SWENSON DR. SUITE 175, WAUKESHA WI 53186 |
| Kellogg L. Warner |
director |
20800 SWENSON DRIVE, SUITE 175, WAUKESHA WI 53186 |
| Jason Tienor |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
20374 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Gerrit J. Reinders |
officer: EXECUTIVE VP GLOBAL SALES AND |
20800 SWENSON DRIVE, SUITE 175, WAUKESHA WI 53186 |
| William H Davis |
director |
29 GLEN GREEN, WINCHESTER MA 01890 |
| Jeff Sobieski |
officer: Executive Vice President |
20374 SENECA MEADOWS PARKWAY, GERMANTOWN MD 20876 |
| Jeffrey P Andrews |
director |
20800 SWENSON DRIVE, SUITE1745, WAUKESHA WI 53186 |
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