Terra Nitrogen Co LP (Terra Nitrogen Co LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Terra Nitrogen Co LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Terra Nitrogen Co LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Terra Nitrogen Co LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Terra Nitrogen Co LP (Terra Nitrogen Co LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » Terra Nitrogen Co LP (NYSE:TNH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cfindustries.com

Terra Nitrogen Co LP is a limited partnership company producing nitrogen fertilizer products. Its principal products anhydrous ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate solutions are manufactured at its facility in Verdigris, Oklahoma. The company's operations are conducted through a partnership with Terra Nitrogen, Limited Partnership, and Terra Nitrogen GP Inc.

Executives

Michael A Jackson	director
Anne H Lloyd	director
Susan L Menzel	officer: Sr. VP, Human Resources	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., FOUR PARKWAY NORTH, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Christopher D Bohn	officer: VP, Supply Chain	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Adam L Hall	officer: VP, Corporate Development	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Dennis P. Kelleher	director, officer: Sr Vice President and CFO	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC, 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Theodore D Sands	director	CITYPLACE ONE SUITE 300, ARCH MINERAL CORP, CREVE COEUR MO 63141
Jablow Spertus Wendy S	officer: VP, Human Resources	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Anthony J Nocchiero	director, officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Lynn F White	officer: VP, Corporate Development	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Philipp P Koch	officer: VP, Supply Chain	C/O CF INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE SALEM LAKE DRIVE, LONG GROVE IL 60047
Stephen R Wilson	director, officer: Chairman, President, and CEO	C/O CF INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE SALEM LAKE DRIVE, LONG GROVE IL 60047
Douglas C Barnard	officer: VP, GC, and Corp. Secretary	C/O CF INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE SALEM LAKE DRIVE, LONG GROVE IL 60047
W Anthony Will	officer: VP, Manufacturing and Dist.	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Richard A Hoker	officer: VP and Corporate Controller	C/O CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC., 4 PARKWAY NORTH, SUITE 400, DEERFIELD IL 60015