Tempur Sealy International (Tempur Sealy International) Predictability Rank

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What is Tempur Sealy International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tempur Sealy International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tempur Sealy International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tempur Sealy International (Tempur Sealy International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Tempur Sealy International Inc (NYSE:TPX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TPD:Germany

Address

1000 Tempur Way, Lexington, KY, USA, 40511

Website

https://www.tempursealy.com

Tempur Sealy International Inc is one of the world's largest bedding providers. The firm develops and distributes bedding products globally through its North America and international segments (Europe, Asia Pacific, and Latin America). Tempur Sealy's products are divided into the bedding and other product categories. The bedding category comprises the majority of net sales. The primary distribution channels of the company within each segment are retail (including furniture and bedding retailers, department stores, and warehouse clubs) and other (including e-commerce platforms, company-owned stores, and third-party distributors). The majority of net sales is derived from retail. Some major brands of the firm include Tempur, Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, and Stearns and Foster.

Executives

Evelyn S Dilsaver	director	C/O LONGS DRUG STORES CORPORATION, 141 NORTH CIVIC DRIVE, WALNUT CREEK CA 94596
Hansbart Wijnand	officer: EVP, INTERNATIONAL	1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40511
David Montgomery	officer: Exec VP, Pres of Intl Ops	TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40511
Bhaskar Rao	officer: CAO & VP of Strategic Planning	TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40511
Simon Dyer	director	1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40511
Meredith R. Siegfried	director	C/O SKYWEST, INC., 444 S RIVER ROAD, ST. GEORGE UT 84790
Scott L Thompson	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	950 ECHO LN STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77024
Thomas A. Murray	officer: EVP, CMO U.S.	C/O CARBONITE, INC., 177 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02115
Buster H Clifford Iii	officer: EVP, Direct to Consumer	1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 74135
Scott Vollet	officer: EVP, Global Operations	1000, TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40511
Trussell Robert B Jr	director	TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40511
Steven H Rusing	officer: President, U.S. Sales	C/O SEALY CORPORATION, ONE OFFICE PARKWAY, TRINITY NC 27370
Arik W Ruchim	director	600 CORPORATION DRIVE, PENDLETON IN 46064
Richard W Neu	director	1100 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 3000, ARLINGTON VA 22209
John Heil	director	VCA ANTECH INC, 12401 WEST OLYMPIC BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90064