Trinity Industries (Trinity Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Trinity Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Trinity Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Trinity Industries (Trinity Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Trinity Industries Inc (NYSE:TRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TTA:Germany TTA:Germany

Address

14221 N. Dallas Parkway, Suite 1100, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254-2957

Website

https://www.trin.net

Trinity Industries Inc. sells and leases railroad products and railcar maintenance services in North America. The company operates under the name TrinityRail in three main segments: railcar leasing and management services, which owns railcars and provides fleet management and administration services; rail products, which builds, sells, and modifies freight and tank railcars and their components; and all other, which sells highway products such as guardrail and other highway barriers. Customers include railroads, leasing companies, and shipping companies in the industries of agriculture, construction, consumer products, energy, and chemicals.

Executives

Eric R Marchetto	other: Officer Trinity Rail	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Gregory B Mitchell	other: Chief Commercial Officer	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Scott M Ewing	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Jean Savage	director	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Todd Maclin	director	P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Biesterfeld Robert C Jr	director	14701 CHARLSON RD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Veena M Lakkundi	director	3M COMPANY, 3M CENTER, BLDG 220 09 E-02, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Brian D Madison	other: President, TILC	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Valueact Capital Master Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Jason G. Anderson	director	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, FOURTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
John L Adams	officer: Executive Vice President	2525 STEMMONS FREEWAY, DALLAS TX 75207
Melendy E Lovett	director	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
William P Ainsworth	director	510 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 100, DEERFIELD X1 60015
Brandon Boze	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Tyrone Michael Jordan	director	8501 NORTH SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85253