Timberland Bancorp (Timberland Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Timberland Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Timberland Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Timberland Bancorp (Timberland Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Timberland Bancorp Inc (NAS:TSBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

624 Simpson Avenue, Hoquiam, WA, USA, 98550

Website

https://www.timberlandbank.com

Timberland Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company. The bank offers a variety of services such as checking accounts, online and mobile banking, savings accounts, home loans, consumer loans, construction loans, business rewards, cash management, small business solutions, and business checking accounts among others. Company also offers loans to real estate, including residential and commercial / multi-family construction loans, one- to four-family residential loans, multi-family loans, commercial real estate loans and land loans. The company mainly operates in the United States.

Executives

Matthew J Debord	officer: Chief Lending Officer/EVP	624 SIMPSON AVENUE, HOQUIAM WA 98550
David Alan Smith	director	18 WESTVIEW DR, HOQUIAM WA 98550
Breanne D Antich	officer: Chief Technology Officer/EVP	624 SIMPSON AVENUE, HOQUIAM WA 98550
Marci A Basich	officer: Treasurer	409 FIR STREET, MCLEARY WA 98557
Andrea M Clinton	director	4520 GREEN COVE CT NW, OLYMPIA WA 98502
Michael R Sand	director, officer: President	128 BEACON HILL DRIVE, HOGUIAM WA 98550
Jonathan Arthur Fischer	officer: Senior Vice President	PO BOX 1156, COSMOPOLIS WA 98537
Jon C Parker	director	P O BOX 700, HOGUIAM WA 98550
Parul Bhandari	director	1775 I STREET NW, SUITE 910, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Foster Edward Colman	officer: Senior Vice President	624 SIMPSON AVENUE, HOQUIAM WA 98550
Larry David Goldberg	director	1801 SHERWOOD LANE, ABERDEEN WA 98520
Michael John Stoney	director	P.O. BOX 226, MCCLEARY WA 98557
Dean J Brydon	officer: CFO	55 BAY BERRY DRIVE, HOGUIAM WA 98550
Daniel D Yerrington	director	624 SIMPSON AVENUE, HOQUIAM WA 98550
Kelly Suter	director	624 SIMPSON AVENUE, HOQUIAM WA 98550