TSR (TSRI) Predictability Rank

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What is TSR Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TSR Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TSR (TSRI) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » TSR Inc (NAS:TSRI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Oser Avenue, Suite 150, Hauppauge, NY, USA, 11788

Website

https://www.tsrconsulting.com

TSR Inc is primarily engaged in the business of providing contract computer programming services to its customers. The company offers technical computer personnel to supplement its in-house information technology capabilities. It also gives staffing capabilities in the areas of mainframe and mid-range computer operations, personal computers and client-server support, internet and e-commerce operations, voice and data communications and helps desk support. Additionally, the company renders services on day-to-day operations, special projects, and on a short-term or long-term basis. It caters to various industries such as insurance, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, publishing and new media, financial services and project utilities.

Executives

Howard Timothy Eriksen	director	567 WILDROSE CIRCLE, LYNDEN WA 98264
Robert E Fitzgerald	director	2204 VAQUERO ESTATES BLVD, WESTLAKE TX 76262
Bradley M Tirpak	director	50 ORCHARD ST., NEW YORK NY 10002
Fintech Consulting, Llc	10 percent owner	120 S WOOD AVE, SUITE 300, ISELIN NJ 08830
Thomas C Salerno	officer: Chief Executive Officer	600 WEST SADDLE RIVER ROAD, UPPER SADDLE RIVER NJ 07548
Ira Cohen	director
Zeff Capital, Lp	10 percent owner	400 S. MCCADDEN PL., LOS ANGELES CA 90020
Joseph Pennacchio	director
Kelly William J. Jr.	director	11 CARNEGIE AVENUE, COLD HARBOR NY 11724
Joseph F Hughes	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O TSR INC, 400 OSER AVE #150, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Winifred Hughes	10 percent owner	1278 RIDGE ROAD, LAUREL HOLLOW NY 11791
Eric M Stein	director	15 HIGHLAND PLACE, BABYLON NY 11702
Regina Dowd	director	275 FLINTLOCK ROAD, SOUTHPORT CT 06890
Brian Mangan	director	45 DUNE COURT, NORTHPORT NY 11768
Christopher J Hughes	director	C/O TSR INC, 400 OSER AVE #150, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788