Tetra Technologies (Tetra Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Tetra Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tetra Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tetra Technologies (Tetra Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Tetra Technologies Inc (NYSE:TTI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TGI:Germany TGI:Germany

Address

24955 Interstate 45 North, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380

Website

https://www.tetratec.com

Tetra Technologies Inc is a diversified oil and gas services company, focused on completion fluids and associated products and services, water management, frac flowback, production well testing, offshore rig cooling, and compression services. It has two reporting segments namely Completion Fluids & Products, and Water & Flowback Services. The Completion Fluids & Products Division manufactures and markets clear brine fluids, additives, and associated products and services. The Water & Flowback Services Division provides onshore oil and gas operators with comprehensive water management services.

Executives

Bates Thomas R Jr	director	TETRA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Christian A Garcia	director	3000 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E., BLDG. J-4, HOUSTON TX 77032
Roy Mcniven	officer: Sr. Vice President	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Matthew Sanderson	officer: Sr. Vice President	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Timothy C Moeller	officer: VP & Chief Procurement Officer	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Brady M Murphy	officer: President & COO	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Elijio V Serrano	officer: Sr. Vice President & CFO	24955 INTERSTATE 45 NORTH, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
William D Sullivan	director	TETRA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Mcgee Sharon D. Booth	director	24955 I-45 NORTH, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Richard D O'brien	officer: VP-Finance & Global Controller	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Boston Shoemake Alicia R	officer: General Counsel	24955 I-45 NORTH, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Shawn D. Williams	director	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Gina Luna	director	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Wallace Bass C Jr	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	24955 INTERSTATE 45 N, THE WOODLANDS X1 77380
Mark E Baldwin	director	TETRA TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 24955 I 45 N, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380