What is United States Antimony Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
United States Antimony Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
United States Antimony (United States Antimony) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
47 Cox Gulch Road, P.O. Box 643, Thompson Falls, MT, USA, 59873
United States Antimony Corp is a fully integrated mining, transportation, milling, smelting, and selling company. The company has four operating segments: United States Antimony, Mexican antimony, United States zeolite, and Precious metals. Its products and services include antimony; silver; gold; zeolite products; and storage, handling, & packaging services. The company's geographical segments are the United States, Canada, and Mexico, of which the vast majority of its revenue comes from the United States.
Executives
| Lloyd Bardswich |
director |
571 CEDAR HILLS ROAD, WHITEHALL MT 59759 |
| Gary C Evans |
director |
1048 TEXAN TRAIL, GRAPEVINE TX 76051 |
| Timothy Hasara |
director |
7733 FORSYTH BLVD, CLAYTON MO 63105 |
| John C. Gustavsen |
officer: Interim CEO |
PO BOX 876, THOMPSON FALLS MT 59873 |
| Daniel Lyle Parks |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
PO BOX 2525, 538 BIG HORN DRIVE, THOMPSON FALLS MT 59873 |
| Kenneth M Reed |
10 percent owner |
328 ADAMS STREET, MILTON MA 02186 |
| Craig W Thomas |
director |
2100 CRESCENT AVENUE, CHARLOTTE NC 28207 |
| Whitney H. Ferer |
director |
2910 NORTH 9TH ST., CARTER LAKE IA 51510 |
| Jeffrey D. Wright |
director |
9036 NE 28TH ST., CLYDE HILL WA 98004 |
| John C Lawrence |
director, officer: President |
4946 ROUTE 200, THOMPSON FALLS MT 59873 |
| Bernard John Guarnera |
director |
9213 LAS MANAITAS AVENUE, SUITE 401, LAS VEGAS NV 89144 |
| Patrick W Dugan |
10 percent owner |
1415 LOUISIANA SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Lydia Dugan |
10 percent owner |
1415 LOUISIANA, SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Russ C Lawrence |
director |
1500 JOHNSON ROAD, DEARY ID 83823 |
| Gary D Babbitt |
director |
7709 WEST PRINCE ST., BOISE ID 83714 |
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