CVR Partners LP (CVR Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is CVR Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CVR Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CVR Partners LP (CVR Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » CVR Partners LP (NYSE:UAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2277 Plaza Drive, Suite 500, Sugar Land, TX, USA, 77479

Website

https://www.cvrpartners.com

CVR Partners LP is a manufacturer and supplier of nitrogen fertilizer products. Its principal products include Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) and ammonia. The company market ammonia products to industrial and agricultural customers and UAN products to agricultural customers. The primary geographic markets for its fertilizer products are Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, and Texas. The company's product sales are heavily weighted toward UAN.

Executives

Jordan Bleznick	director	C/O ENZON PHANNACEUTICALS, INC., 120 COMMERCE DRIVE (SUITE 135), CRANFORD NJ 07016
Mark A Pytosh	director	C/O CVR PARTNERS, LP, 2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Melissa M Buhrig	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	C/O CVR ENERGY, INC., 2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Dane J. Neumann	officer: Interim CFO, VP-Fin.&Treasurer	2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Jeffrey D. Conaway	officer: VP, CAO & Corp. Controller	2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
David Willetts	director	16690 COLLINS AVENUE - PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Kapiljeet Dargan	director	16690 COLLINS AVE., SUITE PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Patricia A. Agnello	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Donna R Ecton	director	C/O BODY CENTRAL CORP., 6225 POWERS AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32217
Hunter Clark Gary	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Matthew W. Bley	officer: CAO and Corp. Controller	2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Tracy Dawn Jackson	officer: EVP and CFO	19100 RIDGEWOOD PARKWAY, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Janice T Develasco	officer: VP-Env., Health, Safety & Sec.	2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Blackstone Holdings I L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gso Cactus Credit Opportunities Fund Lp	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154