U-Haul Holding Co (U-Haul Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is U-Haul Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

U-Haul Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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U-Haul Holding Co (U-Haul Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » U-Haul Holding Co (NYSE:UHAL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UHAL.B:USA AUK0:Germany AUK:Germany

Address

5555 Kietzke Lane, Suite 100, Reno, NV, USA, 89511

Website

https://www.uhaul.com

U-Haul Holding Co is an American moving truck, trailer, and self-storage rental company. The company also provides moving boxes, packing supplies, LPG (propane) refills, trailer hitch and wiring installation, storage container rentals, and other services. It has three reportable segments Moving and Storage, Property and Casualty Insurance, and Life Insurance. The majority of its revenue comes from the Moving and Storage segment.

Executives

Clarendon Strategies, Llc	10 percent owner	207 EAST CLARENDON AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Edward J Shoen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	2727 N CENTRAL AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Mark V Shoen	10 percent owner	2727 N CENTRAL AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Willow Grove Holdings Lp	10 percent owner	1250 E. MISSOURI AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85014
Foster Road Llc	10 percent owner	1250 E. MISSOURI AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85014
Karl A. Schmidt	director	600 HERITAGE RD., DE PERE WI 54115
John P. Brogan	director	2727 N CENTRAL AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Carrie Martz	other: Advisory Board Member	21335 N. 74TH WAY, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85225
De Respino Laurence J	other: General Counsel	2721 N. CENTRAL, 11TH FLOOR, SOUTH TOWER, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Maria Lourdes Bell	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2727 N. CENTRAL AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Matthew Braccia	officer: Pres-Amerco Real Estate Co.	2727 N. CENTRAL AVE., PHOENIX AZ 85004
Thomas W Hayes	other: Ind. Gov Committee Member	C/O FREMONT GENERAL CORP, 2020 SANTA MONICA BLVD #600, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Carlos Vizcarra	officer: Pres-Amerco Real Estate Co	2727 N CENTRAL AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85004
Richard Jay Herrera	director	21 BRILLIANT SKY DRIVE, SANTE FE NM 87508
David L Holmes	10 percent owner, other: Trustee	4040 S. WESTPOINT DR., RENO NV 89509