Ulta Beauty (Ulta Beauty) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

What is Ulta Beauty Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ulta Beauty Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ulta Beauty Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ulta Beauty's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ulta Beauty (Ulta Beauty) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Ulta Beauty Inc (NAS:ULTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ULTA:Mexico 34U:Germany 34U:Germany 34U:Germany U1LT34:Brazil

Address

1000 Remington Boulevard, Suite 120, Bolingbrook, IL, USA, 60440

Website

https://www.ulta.com

With 1,355 stores at the end of fiscal 2022 and a partnership with Target, Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the U.S. The firm offers makeup (42% of 2022 sales), fragrances, skin care, and hair care products (21% of 2022 sales), and bath and body items. Ulta offers private-label products and merchandise from more than 500 vendors. It also offers salon services, including hair, makeup, skin, and brow services, in all stores. Most Ulta stores are approximately 10,000 square feet and are in suburban strip centers. Ulta was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Executives

Lorna Nagler	director	2400 XENIUM LANE NORTH, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Jodi J Caro	officer: GC and Corporate Secretary	130 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Catherine Ann Halligan	director	243 CASELLI AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Mrkonic George R Jr	director	C/O BORDERS GROUP INC, 100 PHOENIX DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Kelly E Garcia	director	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGH DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Heidi G Petz	director	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Gisel Ruiz	director	C/O VITAL FARMS, INC., 3601 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE C100, AUSTIN TX 78704
Mike C. Smith	director	STITCH FIX, INC., ONE MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Michael R Macdonald	director	810 DSW DRIVE, COLUMBUS OH 43219
Patricia A Little	director	999 W BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084
Michelle L Collins	director	C/O MOLEX INCORPORATED, 2222 WELLINGTON COURT, LISLE IL 60503
Anita Jane Ryan	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	1000 REMINGTON BLVD., SUITE 120, BOLINGBROOK IL 60440
David C Kimbell	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	8410 W. BRYN MAWR, CHICAGO IL 60631
Scott M Settersten	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1000 REMINGTON BLVD., SUITE 120, BOLINGBROOK IL 60440
Kecia Steelman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1000 REMINGTON BLVD SUITE 120, BOLINGBROOK IL 60440