What is Unico American Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Unico American Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Unico American (Unico American) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5230 Las Virgenes Road, Calabasas, CA, USA, 91302
Unico American Corp is an insurance holding company that underwrites property and casualty insurance; provides property, casualty, and health insurance; and provides insurance premium financing and membership association services. Its operations are categorized into two segments, the Insurance company operation and Other Insurance operations. The company receives its revenues primarily from premium derived from the insurance company operations, commission and fee income generated from the insurance agency operations, finance charges and fee income from the premium finance operations, and investment income from cash generated primarily from the insurance company operation.
Executives
| Kathryn A. Johnson |
director |
12023 BAYLIES CIRCLE, YUCAIPA CA 92399 |
| Steven L Shea |
officer: President, CEO |
C/O BLONDER TONGUE LABORATORIES, INC., ONE JAKE BROWN ROAD, OLD BRIDGE NJ 08857 |
| Jennifer Elaine Ziegler |
officer: CFO |
26050 MUREAU RD, CALABASA CA 91302 |
| Cary Cheldin |
director, officer: Executive Vice Presidient |
1129 MARICOPA HWY., A-203, OJAI CA 93023 |
| Ambina Partners Llc |
10 percent owner |
309 GREENWICH AVENUE, SUITE 201, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Joycelyn M Ray |
director |
26050 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Donny Jay Esparza |
officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT |
26050 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Gregory M Share |
10 percent owner |
THREE FIRST NATIONAL PLZ, SUITE 3800, CHICAGO IL 60602 |
| Ambina Unico Holdings Llc |
10 percent owner |
309 GREENWICH AVENUE, SUITE 201, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| John Buckley Keefe |
director |
26050 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Gerard J Altonji |
director |
26050 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Jeffrey Tuder |
director |
6 GREENHOUSE DRIVE, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Rhonda L Gillenwaters |
director |
26050 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Ronald A Closser |
director |
26050 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
| Erwin Cheldin |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President |
26050 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302 |
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