What is Union Bankshares Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Union Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Union Bankshares (Union Bankshares) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
20 Lower Main Street, P.O. Box 667, Morrisville, VT, USA, 05661-0667
Union Bankshares Inc operates as a community bank in the financial services industry. It offers retail and commercial banking services to its customers through its branches, ATMs, telebanking, and internet banking systems. The company provides retail banking services to individuals and commercial banking services to small and medium-sized corporations, partnerships, and sole proprietorships, as well as nonprofit organizations, local municipalities, and school districts within its market area. In addition, it also offers fiduciary and asset management services through its Asset Management Group. Geographically, all the business activity is functioned through the US.
Executives
| Patricia N Hogan |
other: Officer of Union Bank |
11 OLD ROUTE 15, CAMBRIDGE VT 05444 |
| Dawn D Bugbee |
director |
313 WEST SHORE ROAD, SOUTH HERO VT 05486 |
| David Scott Silverman |
director, officer: President & CEO |
153 LAZY LANE, MORRISVILLE VT 05661 |
| Mary K Parent |
director |
144 PLEASANT STREET, SAINT JOHNSBURY VT 05819 |
| Nancy C Putnam |
director |
413 JEFF HEIGHTS ROAD, JEFFERSONVILLE VT 05464 |
| Van Dyke Cornelius John |
director |
P.O. BOX 1090, STOWE VT 05672-1090 |
| Vincent W Schoenig |
other: Officer of Union Bank |
75 FENIMORE STREET 2, MORRISVILLE VT 05661 |
| Janet P Spitler |
other: Director of Union Bank |
275 KENNEDY DRIVE, SOUTH BURLINGTON VT 05403 |
| Gregory D Sargent |
director |
15 CEDAR HILL DRIVE, ST. ALBANS VT 05478 |
| Stephen H Kendall |
other: Officer of Union Bank |
254 BIRCH ROAD, SHELBURNE VT 05482 |
| Jonathan Jay Gould |
other: Officer of Union Bank |
18 HUNT ROAD, BRISTOL NH 03222 |
| Robert D Hofmann |
other: Officer of Union Bank |
223 SNOW HILL ROAD, WATERBURY CENTER VT 05677 |
| Carrie R Locklin |
other: Officer of Union Bank |
388 WEST HILL ROAD, ST. JOHNSBURY VT 05819 |
| Lura L Jacques |
other: Officer of Union Bank |
1360 PIDGEON HILL ROAD, FRANKLIN VT 05457 |
| Joel S Bourassa |
director |
PO BOX 568, NORTH WOODSTOCK NH 032620568 |
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