Usana Health Sciences (Usana Health Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Usana Health Sciences Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Usana Health Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Usana Health Sciences (Usana Health Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Usana Health Sciences Inc (NYSE:USNA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

USJ:Germany

Address

3838 West Parkway Boulevard, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84120

Website

http://www.usanahealthsciences.com

Usana Health Sciences Inc is a U.S.-based company that is principally engaged in developing, manufacturing, and selling science-based nutritional and personal-care products. The company operates through direct selling. It owns a number of product lines, such as Essentials, which contains core vitamin and mineral supplements; Optimizers, which includes targeted supplements for individuals' health and nutritional needs; Foods, which consists of low-glycemic meal replacement shakes, snack bars, and other related products; and Sense Beautiful Science, which contains personal-care products related to skin and hair. The company conducts business worldwide, including Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and Europe.

Executives

John Turman Fleming	director	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Gilbert A Fuller	officer: CFO and Executive V.P.	55 WANDERWOOD WAY, SANDY UT 84092
Frederic J Winssinger	director	2944 N 44TH STREET, SUITE 250, PHOENIX AZ 85018
David Mulham Mulham	officer: Chief Field Development Office	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Paul A. Jones	officer: CFO	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Xia Ding	director	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Daniel A. Macuga	officer: Chief Communications Officer	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Jim Brown	officer: Chief Production Officer	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Brent Neidig	officer: CO & Man. Dir. of China	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84120
J Scott Nixon	director	757 EAST SOUTH TEMPLE, SUITE 150, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84102
Kevin Guest	officer: E.V.P. of Marketing	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Joshua Foukas	officer: Chief Legal Officer	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY X1 84120
G Doug Iiekking	officer: VP of Finance	C/O USANA HEALTH SCIENCES INC, 3838 W PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Walter Noot	officer: Chief Information Officer	3838 WEST PARKWAY BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84120
Robert A Sinnott	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	400 55 WATER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6B1A1