US Physical Therapy (US Physical Therapy) Predictability Rank

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What is US Physical Therapy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

US Physical Therapy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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US Physical Therapy (US Physical Therapy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » US Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UPH:Germany

Address

1300 West Sam Houston Parkway South, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77042

Website

https://www.usph.com

US Physical Therapy Inc through its subsidiaries operates outpatient physical therapy clinics that provide pre-and post-operative care and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventative care, rehabilitation of injured workers, and neurological-related injuries. The principal sources of payment for the clinics' services are managed care programs, commercial health insurance, Medicare/Medicaid, workers' compensation insurance, and proceeds from personal injury cases. Its operating segment includes Physical therapy operations and Industrial injury prevention services. The company generates maximum revenue from the Physical therapy operations segment.

Executives

Clayton Trier	director	1300 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY SOUTH, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Kathleen A Gilmartin	director	1300 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY S, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Nancy Ham	director	U.S. PHYSICAL THERAPY INC., 1300 W SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY - SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77042
Richard Binstein	officer: EVP Gen'l Counsel & Secretary	3733 ROSEMONT PASS, NEWTOWN SQUARE PA 19037
Edward L Kuntz	director
Graham D. Reeve	officer: COO	1300 W. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Harris Bernard A Jr	director	3411 ERIN KNOLL CT, HOUSTON TX 77059
Carey P Hendrickson	officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: Effective 11/9/2020	400 S. RECORD STREET, DALLAS TX 75202
Eric Joseph Williams	officer: Chief Operations Officer	1300 SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY W, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Harry S Chapman	director	4626 DRAKE FALLS COURT, KATY TX 77450
Christopher J Reading	officer: Chief Operating Officer
Mark J Brookner	director	1300 W SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY S, STE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Regg E. Swanson	director, Director	1737 BURKE HOLLOW ROAD, NOLENSVILLE TN 37037
Anne Motsenbocker	director	1300 W SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Glenn Mcdowell	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1300 W. SAM HOUSTON PKWY S., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042