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Univest Financial (Univest Financial) Predictability Rank


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What is Univest Financial Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Univest Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Univest Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Univest Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Univest Financial (Univest Financial) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
14 North Main Street, Souderton, PA, USA, 18964
Univest Financial Corp is engaged in domestic banking services for individuals, businesses, municipalities, and non-profit organizations. The bank has three operating segments; Banking segment provides financial services including a full range of banking services such as deposit taking, loan origination, and servicing, mortgage banking, other general banking services, and equipment lease financing, Wealth Management segment offers investment advisory, financial planning, trust and brokerage services, and The Insurance segment includes a full-service insurance brokerage agency offering commercial property and casualty insurance, employee benefits solutions, personal insurance lines and human resources consulting. It generates a majority of its revenue from the banking segment.
Executives
Jeffrey M Schweitzer officer: EVP & CFO 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Natalye Paquin director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Martin P. Connor director 1140 VIRGINIA DRIVE, FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Todd S Benning director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Robert C Wonderling director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Thomas M Petro director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
William S Aichele director, officer: Director and President & CEO 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Roger H Ballou director C/O CDI CORP, 1717 ARCH ST 35TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Patrick C Mccormick officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer 14 NORTH MAIN ST, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Duane J Brobst officer: Executive VP 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Michael S Keim officer: EVP & CFO 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
K Leon Moyer officer: Senior Executive Vice Presiden 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Joseph P Beebe director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Glenn E Moyer director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964
Suzanne Keenan director 14 NORTH MAIN STREET, PO BOX 197, SOUDERTON PA 18964