What is Voya Financial Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Voya Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Voya Financial (Voya Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
230 Park Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10169
Voya Financial Inc is a financial services company, which, through its subsidiaries, provides various investment, insurance, and retirement solutions to individual and institutional clients in the United States. Its products and services include tax savings plans, individual retirement accounts, group life insurance plans, and employee benefits products, among others. The company tailors each of its products to the needs of its customer base. It operates its business through three principal lines: Wealth Solutions, Investment Management, and Health Solutions The Wealth segment generates roughly half of the company's revenue.
Executives
| Martin Rodney O Jr |
director, officer: Chairman and CEO |
70 PINE ST, NEW YORK NY 10270 |
| Tony D Oh |
officer: See Remarks |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Brannigan C Thompson |
other: See Remarks |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Yvette S. Butler |
director |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Biff Bowman |
director |
50 S. LASALLE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60603 |
| Hikmet Ersek |
director |
7001 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, DENVER CO 80237 |
| Santhosh Keshavan |
officer: See Remarks |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Matthew Levin |
officer: See Remarks |
NEUSTAR, INC., 4600 CENTER OAK PLAZA, STERLING VA 20166 |
| Charles P Nelson |
officer: CEO, Retirement |
230 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Donald C. Templin |
officer: See Remarks |
328 PHEASANT RUN PLACE, FINDLAY OH 45840 |
| Nancy Ferrara |
officer: See Remarks |
230 PARK AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Trevor Ogle |
officer: See Remarks |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Michael Robert Katz |
officer: See Remarks |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| Michael S Smith |
officer: Chief Risk Officer |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
| My Chi To |
officer: See Remarks |
230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169 |
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