Verisk Analytics (Verisk Analytics) Predictability Rank

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What is Verisk Analytics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Verisk Analytics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Verisk Analytics (Verisk Analytics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Verisk Analytics Inc (NAS:VRSK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VRSK:Mexico VA7A:Germany V1RS34:Brazil VRSK:Austria

Address

545 Washington Boulevard, Jersey City, NJ, USA, 07310-1686

Website

https://www.verisk.com

Verisk Analytics is the leading provider of statistical, actuarial, and underwriting data for the United States' property and casualty insurance industry. Verisk leverages a vast contributory database and proprietary data assets to develop analytical tools helping insurance providers to better assess and price risk, achieve operational efficiency and optimize claim settlement processes. While Verisk also offers tools to quantify costs after loss events occur and to detect fraudulent activity, it is expanding into adjacent markets of life insurance, marketing, and non-U.S. operations.

Executives

Nicholas Daffan	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Therese M Vaughan	director	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, THE CHARTIS BUILDING / 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Samuel G Liss	director	VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Bruce Edward Hansen	director	17732 VINEYARD LANE, POWAY CA 92064
Wendy E Lane	director
David J. Grover	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O VERISK ANALYSIS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Christopher M Foskett	director	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310-1686
David B Wright	director	C/O EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Kathy Card Beckles	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel and Corp Sec	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 073I0
Elizabeth Mann	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Olumide Soroye	director	6920 SEAWAY BLVD., EVERETT WA 98203
Lee Shavel	officer: EVP and CFO	ONE LIBERTY PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10006
Jeffrey J Dailey	director	545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Kimberly S Stevenson	director	199 FREMONT STREET, 7TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Scott G Stephenson	officer: EVP & COO	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310-1686