Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (NYSE:WAB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WAB:Mexico WB2:Germany WB2:Germany W1AB34:Brazil

Address

30 Isabella Street, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15212

Website

https://www.wabteccorp.com

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp is a provider of value-added, technology-based products and services for the rail industry. It provides its products and services through two main business segments, Freight and Transit. The company generates maximum revenue from the Freight segment.

Executives

Kristine Kubacki	other: VP, Investor Relations	1001 AIR BRAKE AVENUE, WILMERDING PA 15148
Michael Fetsko	officer: Pres., Freight Components Grp.	1001 AIR BRAKE AVENUE, WILMERDING PA 15148
Alicia Hammersmith	officer: President - Services Group	30 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Albert J Neupaver	director
William E Kassling	director	C/O WASTEC, 10001 AIR BREAK AVE, WILMERDING PA 15148
Mastalerz John A Jr	officer: VP Fin., Corp. Controller, CAO	1001 AIR BRAKE AVENUE, WILMERDING PA 15148
Linda S Harty	director	MEDTRONIC PLC, 710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY NE, LC-150, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
David L Deninno	officer: Exec VP, General Counsel, Sec.	1001 AIR BRAKE AVENUE, WILMERDING PA 15148
Byron S Foster	director	30 ISABELLA ST., PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Lee C Banks	director	PARKER HANNIFIN CORP, 6035 PARKLAND BLVD, CLEVELAND OH 44124-4141
Ann R. Klee	director	30 ISABELLA ST., PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Eric Gebhardt	officer: Chief Technology Officer	30 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Gregory Sbrocco	officer: Sr. VP, Global Operations	1001 AIR BRAKE AVENUE, WILMERDING PA 15148
Lilian Leroux	officer: President, Transit Group	1001 AIR BRAKE AVENUE, WILMERDING PA 15148
John A Olin	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC., 3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208