WaFd (WAFD) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is WaFd Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WaFd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

WaFd Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of WaFd's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

WaFd (WAFD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » WaFd Inc (NAS:WAFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WAFDP.PFD:USA WAO:Germany

Address

425 Pike Street, Seattle, WA, USA, 98101

Website

https://www.wafdbank.com

WaFd Inc is engaged in providing lending, depository, insurance and other banking services to consumers, mid-sized to large businesses, and owners and developers of commercial real estate. Geographically It operates in Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Texas, Utah. New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho and others. WaFd Inc provides, Personal Banking, Business Banking, Commercial Banking and Home Loans.

Executives

Randall H Talbot	director	777 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 1200, BELLEVUE WA 98124-1690
David K Grant	director
Blayne Sanden	officer: SVP & PAO	425 PIKE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98101
Brent J Beardall	officer: EVP & CFO	425 PIKE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98101
Kim E Robison	officer: EVP & Chief Operations Officer	425 PIKE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98101
Cathy E Cooper	officer: EVP & Chief Consumer Banker	425 PIKE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98101
Kelli Holz	officer: EVP & CFO	PO BOX 580, BELLINGHAM WA 98227
Vincent L Beatty	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	425 PIKE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98101
Shawn Bice	director	C/O SPLUNK INC., 270 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Ryan Mauer	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	425 PIKE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98101
James Endrizzi	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Banker	425 PIKE STREET, SEATTLE WA 98101
Sean Singleton	director	425 PIKE ST, SEATTLE WA 98101
Sylvia Hampel	director	425 PIKE ST, SEATTLE WA 98101
Sudhir Steven Singh	director	6222 185TH AVE, REDMOND WA 98052
Linda S Brower	director