Walker & Dunlop (Walker & Dunlop) Predictability Rank

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What is Walker & Dunlop Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Walker & Dunlop Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Walker & Dunlop (Walker & Dunlop) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Walker & Dunlop Inc (NYSE:WD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5WD:Germany

Address

7272 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1300, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814

Website

https://www.walkerdunlop.com

Walker & Dunlop Inc is a United States-based commercial real estate finance company. It is principally engaged in originating, selling and servicing a number of multifamily and other commercial real estate financing products that are sold under the programs of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and the Federal Housing Administration. The company's products consist of first mortgage loans, second trust loans, supplemental financings, construction loans, mezzanine loans, and bridge/interim loans. The company generates a majority of total revenue from gains from mortgage banking activities and servicing fees. It conducts business solely in the United States.

Executives

Smith Howard W Iii	director, officer: President	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
William M Walker	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Stephen P Theobald	officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer	999 WATERSIDE DRIVE, SUITE 200, NORFOLK VA 23510
Richard M Lucas	officer: EVP & Gen Counsel & Secretary	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Paula A. Pryor	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	C/O WALKER & DUNLOP, INC., 7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Dana L Schmaltz	director	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Gregory Florkowski	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O WALKER & DUNLOP, INC., 7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Rice E. John Jr	director	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Donna Wells	director	BOSTON PRIVATE FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC., TEN POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Michael J. Warren	director	C/O WALKER & DUNLOP, INC., 7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Michael D Malone	director	2430 LEMON TREE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Alan J Bowers	director	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Richard C Warner	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	7501 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1200, BETHESDA MD 20814
Ellen Levy	director	C/O INSTRUCTURE, INC., 6330 SOUTH 3000 EAST, SUITE 700, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Cynthia A Hallenbeck	director	7272 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814