Whole Foods Market (Whole Foods Market) Predictability Rank

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What is Whole Foods Market Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Whole Foods Market Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Whole Foods Market (Whole Foods Market) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Whole Foods Market Inc (NAS:WFM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.wholefoodsmarket.com

Whole Foods Market is the world's leading retailer of natural and organic foods by units and is the first certified organic grocer in the United States. Whole Foods' only operating segment consists of natural and organic foods supermarkets. As of fiscal 2016, the company had 456 stores in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The average store size is about 39,000 square feet. About 15% of the company's sales were derived from the sale of private-label products. The company announced a pending acquisition by Amazon in June 2017.

Executives

Scott F Powers	director	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Sharon Mccollam	director	C/O OFFICEMAX INCORPORATED, 263 SHUMAN BLVD., NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Ken C Hicks	director	150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103
Mary Ellen Coe	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Gabrielle Sulzberger	director	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, FLOOR 13, NEW YORK NY 10017
Glenda J Flanagan	officer: Executive Vice President	550 BOWIE STREET, AUSTIN TX 78703
Joseph D Mansueto	director	C/O MORNINGSTAR, INC., 225 WEST WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Robb Walter E Iv	director	550 BOWIE STREET, AUSTIN TX 78703
Ralph Z Sorenson	director	WHOLE FOODS MARKET, INC. 550 BOWIE STREET AUSTIN TX 78703
William A Tindell	director	500 FREEPORT PARKWAY, COPPELL TX 75019
Green Equity Investors V, L.p.	other: See General Remarks.	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Gei Capital V, Llc	other: See General Remarks.	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Green Equity Investors Side V, L.p.	other: See General Remarks.	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Green V Holdings, Llc	other: See General Remarks.	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Lgp Management Inc	other: See General Remarks.	11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD, STE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025