Winnebago Industries (Winnebago Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Winnebago Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Winnebago Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Winnebago Industries (Winnebago Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Winnebago Industries Inc (NYSE:WGO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WI1:Germany WI1:Germany

Address

13200 Pioneer Trail, Eden Prairie, MN, USA, 55347

Website

https://www.winnebagoind.com

Winnebago Industries manufactures Class A, B, and C motor homes along with towables, customized specialty vehicles, boats, and parts. Headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota, Winnebago has been producing recreational vehicles since 1958. Revenue was about $3.5 billion in fiscal 2023. Winnebago expanded into towables in 2011 with the acquisition of SunnyBrook and acquired Grand Design in November 2016. Towables made up 79% of the firm's RV unit volume, up from 31% in fiscal 2016. The company's total RV unit volume was 39,447 in fiscal 2023. Winnebago expanded into boating in 2018 with the purchase of Chris-Craft, bought premium motor home maker Newmar in November 2019, and bought Barletta pontoon boats in August 2021. It also is developing electric and autonomous technology.

Executives

Christopher David West	officer: VP - Operations	N60W27221 TRAPPERS RUN, SUSSEX WI 53089
Richard D Moss	director	1715 WEST 38TH STREET, CHATTANOOGA TN 37409
William C. Fisher	director	2100 HIGHWAY 55, MEDINA MN 55340
Ashis Nayan Bhattacharya	officer: VP Strategic Development & Pla	6341 URBANDALE LANE NORTH, MAPLE GROVE MN 55311
Staci L Kroon	director	13200 PIONEER TRAIL, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Donald Jeff Clark	officer: President & CEO Grand Design	13429 WOODED KNOLL TRAIL, MIDDLEBURY IN 46540
Casey J Tubman	officer: PRESIDENT, NEWMAR CORPORATION	13200 PIONEER TRAIL, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Maria Favlana Blase	director	PO BOX 152, FOREST CITY IA 50436
Jacqueline D. Woods	director	PO BOX 152, FOREST CITY IA 50436
Kevin E. Bryant	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Matthew L. Miller	officer: VP, WGO, President, Newmar	P.O. BOX 152, FOREST CITY IA 50436
Bret A Woodson	officer: VP-Administration	P.O. BOX 152, FOREST CITY IA 50436
Huw Bower	officer: President, Winnebago Outdoors	C/O BRUNSWICK CORPORATION, 1 N FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Michael J Happe	director, officer: CEO & President	P.O. BOX 152, FOREST CITY IA 50436
Christopher J Braun	director	P.O. BOX 152, FOREST CITY IA 50436