WR Berkley (WR Berkley) Predictability Rank

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What is WR Berkley Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WR Berkley Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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WR Berkley (WR Berkley) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » WR Berkley Corp (NYSE:WRB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WRBpE.PFD:USA WR1:Germany

Address

475 Steamboat Road, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830

Website

http://www.wrberkley.com

W.R. Berkley is an insurance holding company with a host of subsidiaries that primarily underwrite commercial casualty insurance. The firm specializes in niche products that include various excess and surplus lines, workers' compensation insurance, self-insurance consulting, reinsurance, and regional commercial lines for small and midsize businesses.

Executives

Daniel Lynn Mosley	director	475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mark Ellwood Brockbank	director	ROC FLEURI APT C41, 1 RUE DU TENAO, MONTE CARLO O9 98000
Jonathan Talisman	director	475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, W R BERKLEY CORPORATION, GREENWICH CT 06830
Philip S Welt	officer: EVP & General Counsel	W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION, 475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
James G Shiel	officer: Sr.Vice Pres. - Investments	C/O W R BERKLEY CORP, 475 STEAMBOAT RD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Leigh Ann Pusey	director	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Maria Luisa Ferre	director	PO BOX 9066590, SAN JUAN PR 00906-6590
Matthew M Ricciardi	officer: SVP AND GENERAL COUNSEL	W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION, 475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Ira S Lederman	officer: SVP-General Counsel & Sec.	475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Clement P Patafio	officer: V.P.-Corp. Controller	C/O W R BERKLEY CORP, 475 STEAMBOAT RD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Christopher L Augostini	director	C/O W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION, 475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Eugene G Ballard	officer: Sr.V.P.- CFO & Treas.	C/O W R BERKLEY CORP, 475 STEAMBOAT RD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Ronald E Blaylock	director
Lucille T Sgaglione	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION, 475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jeffrey Marc Hafter	officer: SVP	W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION, 475 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830