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Wesbanco (Wesbanco) Predictability Rank


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What is Wesbanco Predictability Rank?

2.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Wesbanco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Wesbanco Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Wesbanco (Wesbanco) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 Bank Plaza, Wheeling, WV, USA, 26003
Wesbanco Inc is a bank holding company that offers a full range of financial services, including retail banking, corporate banking, personal and corporate trust services, brokerage services, mortgage banking, and insurance. The company has two reportable segments: community banking and trust and investment services. WesBanco operates one commercial bank, WesBanco Bank, which runs scores of branches. Its market service area primarily includes the Rust Belt region of the United States. Commercial real estate accounts for nearly half of the bank's loan portfolio. The bank has historically grown through both organic growth and acquisitions. The bank's primary component of net revenue is net interest income.
Executives
Proctor Gregory S Jr director 2995 CRAIN HIGHWAY, WALDORF MD 20601
Jeffrey H Jackson officer: SEVP & COO C/O WESBANCO, ONE BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Robert J Fitzsimmons director 1701 WARWOOD AVENUE, WHEELING WV 26003
Denise H Knouse-snyder director C/O WESBANCO INC, ONE BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Kerry M Stemler director
Scott A Love officer: EVP - Wealth Management C/O WESBANCO, ONE BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Jonathan D Dargusch officer: EVP - Wealth Management C/O WESBANCO, INC., ONE BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Todd Clossin officer: EVP & COO 38 FOUNTAIN SQUARE PLAZA, MD 10AT76, CINCINNATI OH 45263
Jayson M Zatta officer: EVP & Chief Lending Officer C/O WESBANCO INC, ONE BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Brent E Richmond officer: Exec. Vice President WESBANCO, INC, 1 BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Robert H Friend officer: EVP & CCO C/O WESBANCO, ONE BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Joseph R Robinson director 38 FOUNTAIN SQUARE PLAZA, MD 10AT76, CINCINNATI OH 45263
Rosie Allen-herring director 1525 POINTER RIDGE PLACE, BOWIE MD 20716
Robert H Young officer: Exec Vice President/CFO 1BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003
Nelson F Eric Jr director C/O WESBANCO INC, ONE BANK PLAZA, WHEELING WV 26003