XOMA (XOMA) Predictability Rank

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What is XOMA Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

XOMA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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XOMA (XOMA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » XOMA Corp (NAS:XOMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XOMAO.PFD:USA XOMAP.PFD:USA X0M1:Germany

Address

2200 Powell Street, Suite 310, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://www.xoma.com

XOMA Corp is a biotechnology royalty aggregator playing a role in helping biotech companies achieve their goal of improving human health. XOMA acquires the potential future economics associated with pre-commercial therapeutic candidates that have been licensed to pharmaceutical or biotechnology companies. When XOMA acquires future economic rights, the seller receives non-dilutive, non-recourse funding that can use to advance their internal drug candidate(s) or for general corporate purposes.

Executives

Bradley Sitko	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O XOMA CORPORATION, 2200 POWELL STREET, SUITE 310, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Owen Hughes	director, officer: Interim CEO	C/O RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02139
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Thomas M. Burns	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710
James R Neal	officer: VP Business Development	2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710
Heather L Franklin	director	C/O ZYMOGENETICS, INC., 1201 EASTLAKE AVE E, SEATTLE WA 98102
Natasha Hernday	director	932 SOUTHWOOD BLVD, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Bvf Ii Gp Llc	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Gp Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf I Gp Llc	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Van Ness W Denman	director	C/O XOMA LTD, 2910 SEVENTH ST., BERKELEY CA 94710
Barbara Kosacz	director	3175 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Deepshikha Datta	officer: Chief Business Officer	2200 POWELL STREET, SUITE 310, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
John Varian	director, officer: Director and CEO	ARYX THERAPEUTICS,INC., 6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Matthew D Perry	director, other: See Explanation of Responses	ONE SANSOME STREET, 30TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104