Yelp (YELP) Predictability Rank

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What is Yelp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yelp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Yelp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Yelp (YELP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

Y9L:Germany Y9L:Germany YELP:Argentina

Address

350 Mission Street, 10th Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.yelp.com

Yelp Inc operates in the online content market based in the United States. It provides a web-based platform and mobile application to bridge the gap between businesses and consumers. The platform assists consumers through product reviews, tips, photos and videos thereby enabling them in making better buying decisions and posting their feedbacks. Its products and services includes Advertising Products and Business Page Products. In addition, it also lets the buyers directly transact with businesses directly through its platform. Yelp generates revenue mainly from the sale of advertising on its website and mobile app to businesses. The company generates majority of the revenue from United States.

Executives

David A Schwarzbach	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O YELP INC.., 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Joseph R Nachman	officer: SVP, Sales	C/O YELP INC., 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Sam Eaton	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O YELP, 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jeremy Stoppelman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O YELP INC., 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Carmen Orr	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O YELP INC., 140 NEW MONTGOMERY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Craig Saldanha	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O YELP INC., 140 NEW MONTGOMERY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Yelp Inc	officer: Chief Technology Officer	350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Chris Terrill	director	FORT WASHINGTON EXECUTIVE CENTER, 600 OFFICE CENTER DRIVE, FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Vivek Patel	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O YELP INC., 140 MONTGOMERY ST, 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Miriam Warren	officer: Chief Diversity Officer	C/O YELP, 140 NEW MONTGOMERY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Laurence Wilson	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O YELP! INC., 706 MISSION ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Carolyn Patterson	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O YELP, 140 NEW MONTGOMERY STREET, 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Royce A. Wells	director	C/O YELP INC., 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Christine Barone	director	C/O YELP INC., 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
James Miln	officer: Interim CFO	C/O YELP INC., 140 NEW MONTGOMERY ST., 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105