The York Water Co (The York Water Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The York Water Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The York Water Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The York Water Co (The York Water Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » The York Water Co (NAS:YORW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

YWA:Germany

Address

130 East Market Street, York, PA, USA, 17401

Website

https://www.yorkwater.com

The York Water Co is an investor-owned water utility company in the United States. The primary business of the company is to impound, purify to meet or exceed safe drinking water standards and distribute water. It also owns and operates three wastewater collection systems and two wastewater treatment systems. The company operates within its franchised territory, which covers more than 54 municipalities within York County, Pennsylvania.

Executives

Steven R Rasmussen	director	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401-1219
Alexandra C Chiaruttini	officer: CAO & General Counsel	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401
Vernon L Bracey	officer: Vice President-Customer Svc	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401-1219
Joseph Thomas Hand	officer: Chief Operating Officer	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401-1219
Mark S Snyder	officer: Vice President-Engineering	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401-1219
Natalee Colon	officer: VP-Human Resources	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401
Matthew E Poff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401-1219
Douglas S Brossman	director	130 E MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401
Matthew J Scarpato	officer: VP- Operations	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401
Laura T Wand	director	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401
Mark A Wheeler	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401
Kain George Hay Iii Esq	director	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401-1219
Paul R Bonney	director	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401
Cynthia Dotzel	director	105 LEADER HEIGHTS ROAD, YORK PA 17403
Jody L Keller	director	130 EAST MARKET STREET, YORK PA 17401-1219