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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Assured Guaranty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Insurance - Specialty subindustry, Assured Guaranty's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Assured Guaranty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Assured Guaranty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -8.60 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.02% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | (Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments) | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Assured Guaranty's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
G Lawrence Buhl | director | 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, C/O ASSURED GUARANTY LTD, HAMILTON BERMUDA D0 0000 |
Stephen Donnarumma | officer: Chief Credit Officer | 30 WOODOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM08 |
Dominic Frederico | director, officer: Deputy Chairman/President/CEO | ACE LTD, ACE BLDG 30 WOODBOURNE AVE HAMILTON BER |
Robert Bailenson | officer: Chief Accounting Officer | ASSURED GUARANTY LTD., 30 WOODBOURNE AVENUE, HAMILTON D0 HM08 |
Jorge A. Gana | officer: Chief Risk Officer | 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08 |
Howard Albert | officer: Chief Risk Officer | 31 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
David A. Buzen | officer: Head of Asset Management* | 850 3RD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Laura Bieling | officer: Chief Accounting Officer* | 30 WOODBOURNE AVE., 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08 |
Holly Horn | officer: Chief Surveillance Officer | 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08 |
Brewer Russell B. Ii | officer: Chief Surveillance Officer | 31 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
Shea Courtney C. | director | 1555 N. ASTOR STREET, APARTMENT 9W, CHICAGO IL 60610 |
Michelle Mccloskey | director | C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN LP, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
Lorin Radtke | director | 30 WOODBOURNE AVE, 5TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 D0 HM08 |
Thomas W Jones | director | ALTRIA GROUP INC, 6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230 |
Andrew T Feldstein | officer: Chief Investment Officer | 280 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
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