What is Con-way Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Con-way's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Con-way's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Trucking subindustry, Con-way's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Con-way's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Con-way's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Con-way's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Con-way Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Con-way (Con-way) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Con-way Inc was incorporated in Delaware in 1958. The Company and its subsidiaries provide transportation, logistics and supply-chain management services to various manufacturing, industrial and retail customers. Its business units operate in regional, inter-regional and transcontinental less-than-truckload and full-truckload freight transportation, contract logistics and supply-chain management, multimodal freight brokerage, and trailer manufacturing. The Company operates under three reporting segments: Freight, Logistics and Truckload. The Freight segment consists of the operating results of the Con-way Freight business unit. Con-way Freight is a less-than-truckload motor carrier that utilizes a network of freight service centers to provide day-definite regional, inter-regional and transcontinental less-than-truckload freight services throughout North America. LTL carriers transport shipments from multiple shippers utilizing a network of freight service centers combined with a fleet of linehaul and pickup-and-delivery tractors and trailers. LTL shipments weigh between 100 and 15,000 pounds. In 2013, Con-way Freight's average weight per shipment was 1,334 pounds. The Logistics segment consists of the operating results of the Menlo Worldwide Logistics business unit. Menlo develops contract-logistics solutions, which include managing complex distribution networks, and providing supply-chain engineering and consulting, and multimodal freight brokerage services. Menlo's supply-chain management offerings are mainly related to transportation-management and contract-warehousing services. The Truckload segment consists of the operating results of the Con-way Truckload business unit. Con-way Truckload is a full-truckload motor carrier that utilizes a fleet of tractors and trailers to provide short- and long-haul, asset-based transportation services throughout North America. Con-way Truckload provides dry-van transportation services to manufacturing, industrial and retail customers while using single drivers as well as two-person driver teams over long-haul routes, with each trailer containing only one customer's goods. On average, Con-way Truckload transports shipments more than 800 miles from origin to destination. Under its regional service offering, Con-way Truckload transports truckload shipments between 100 and 600 miles, including local-area service for truckload shipments of less than 100 miles. It competes with regional and national LTL companies, some of which are subsidiaries of integrated transportation service providers, domestic and foreign logistics companies, truckload carriers, railroads and private fleets. The Company is subject to various federal, state and local, as well as foreign, laws and regulations that apply to its business activities.
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