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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, DSS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 24.05%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, DSS's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, DSS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where DSS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -1.15 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 24.05% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
DSS (AMEX:DSS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DSS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Wu William Wai Leung | director | C/O DOCUMENT SECURITY SYSTEMS, INC., 200 CANAL VIEW BLVD., SUITE 300, ROCHESTER NY 14624 |
Chan Heng Fai Ambrose | director | 2601 INSLAND PLACE TOWER, 510 KINGS RD N POINT, HONG KONG K3 999999999 |
Lim Sheng Hon Danny | director | 4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
Alset International Ltd | 10 percent owner | 10 WINSTEDT ROAD #02-02, SINGAPORE U0 227977 |
Hiu Pan Wong | director | RM F, 47/F, TOWER 6, PARK AVENUE,, 18 HOI TING ROAD, TAI KOK TUSI, KOWLOON, HONG KONG F4 999077 |
Shui Yeung Wong | director | 4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
Alset Ehome International Inc. | 10 percent owner | 4800 MONTGOMERY LANE, SUITE 210, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
Todd D Macko | officer: Interim CFO | C/O 200 CANAL VIEW BLVD., SUITE 104, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
Tung Moe Chan | director | 1601 BLAKE ST, SUITE 310, DENVER CO 80202 |
Global Biomedical Pte. Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 7 TEMASEK BOULEVARD #29-01B, SUNTEC TOWER ONE, SINGAPORE U0 038987 |
Sassuan (samson) Lee | director | 200 CANAL VIEW BLVD., SUITE 300, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
Jose Escudero | director | 200 CANAL VIEW BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
Jason Grady | officer: Chief Operating Officer | 1093 CARRINGTON WAY, VICTOR NY 14564 |
Joseph L. Sanders | director | C/O DOCUMENT SECURITY SYSTEMS, INC., 28 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 1525, ROCHESTER NY 14614 |
John Thatch | director | C/O SHARING SERVICES, INC., 1701 COIT ROAD, SUITE 100, PLANO TX 75075 |
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