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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Dreamworks Animation SKG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Broadcasting subindustry, Dreamworks Animation SKG's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Dreamworks Animation SKG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Dreamworks Animation SKG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Dreamworks Animation SKG (NAS:DWA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Dreamworks Animation SKG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Lucian Grainge | director | C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC., 3100 OCEAN PARK BLVD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405 |
Fazal F Merchant | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 2230 E. IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245 |
Steven A Adams | officer: Chief Accounting Officer | 2260 E IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, EL SEGUNDO X1 90245 |
Jeffrey Katzenberg | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | C/O DREAMWORKS ANIMATION SKG, INC. 1000 FLOWER STREET GLENDALE CA 91201 |
Michael J Montgomery | director | 100 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD SUITE 400 SANTA MONICA CA 90401 |
Thomas E Freston | director | VIACOM INC., 1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
Jason Kilar | director | 208 S. AKARD ST, DALLAS TX 75202 |
Mary Agnes Wilderotter | director | 115 ALPINE TERRACE, OAKLAND CA 94618 |
Mellody L Hobson | director | C/O TELLABS, 1415 W DIEHL RD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563 |
Michael Francis | officer: Chief Global Brand Officer | 6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024 |
Lewis W Coleman | director, officer: Vice Chairman | |
Mark Zoradi | officer: Chief Operating Officer | C/O DREAMWORKS ANIMATION SKG, INC., 1000 FLOWER STREET, GLENDALE CA 91201 |
Roger A Enrico | director | |
Judson C Green | director | C/O NAVTEQ CORPORATION, 222 MERCHANDISE MART #900, CHICAGO IL 60554 |
Von Der Heyden Karl M | director | 25 CENTRAL PARK WEST, #24K, NEW YORK NY 10023 |
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