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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, EPR Properties's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the REIT - Specialty subindustry, EPR Properties's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, EPR Properties's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where EPR Properties's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -8.07 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.03% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
EPR Properties (NYSE:EPR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of EPR Properties's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Tonya L. Mater | officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer | 909 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 200, KANSAS CITY MO 64106 |
Gwendolyn Mary Johnson | officer: SVP - Asset Management | 7418 COTTONWOOD DRIVE, SHAWNEE KS 66216 |
Peter C Brown | director | 909 WALNUT STE 200, KANSAS CITY MO 64106 |
Lisa G Trimberger | director | C/O CORPORATE OFFICE PROPERTIES TRUST, 6711 COLUMBIA GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 300, COLUMBIA MD 21046 |
Paul Robert Turvey | officer: SVP& Associate General Counsel | 22211 W 59TH STREET, SHAWNEE KS 66226 |
John Case | director | 600 LA TERRAZA BOULEVARD, ESCONDIDO CA 92025 |
Caixia Ziegler | director | 421 W. ROSLYN PLACE, CHICAGO IL 60614 |
Mark Alan Peterson | officer: VP of Accounting & Administrat | 909 WALNUT, SUITE 200, KANSAS CITY MO 64106 |
Craig L. Evans | officer: SVP & General Counsel | 909 WALNUT, SUITE 200, KANSAS CITY MO 64106 |
Elizabeth Grace | officer: SVP & Human Resources & Admin | 909 WALNUT STREET SUITE 200, KANSAS CITY MO 64106 |
Robin Peppe Sterneck | director | 11205 BROOKWOOD AVENUE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
Newman Jack A Jr | director | 2300 WEST 96TH ST., LEAWOOD KS 64106 |
Virginia E Shanks | director | 4170 CAUGHLIN PARKWAY, RENO NV 89519 |
Robert J Druten | director | 6503 SENECA ROAD, MISSION HILLS KS 66208 |
Gregory E Zimmerman | officer: EVP & Chief Investment Officer | 909 WALNUT, SUITE 200, KANSAS CITY MO 64106 |
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