What is Forest Laboratories Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Forest Laboratories's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Forest Laboratories's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic subindustry, Forest Laboratories's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Forest Laboratories's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry
For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Forest Laboratories's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Forest Laboratories's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Forest Laboratories Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Forest Laboratories (FRA:FQX) Business Description
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Forest Laboratories, Inc. is a Delaware corporation organized in 1956. The Company develops, manufactures and sells branded forms of ethical drug products most of which require a physician's prescription. The Company's most important United States products are marketed directly, or 'detailed,' to physicians by its salesforces. It emphasizes detailing to physicians of those branded ethical drugs which have the most potential for growth and benefit to patients. The Company also develops and introduces new products, including products developed in collaboration with licensing partners. The Company's products include those developed by it and those acquired from other pharmaceutical companies and integrated into its marketing and distribution systems. It actively promotes in the United States those branded products which have the most potential for growth and patient benefit, and which enable its salesforces to concentrate on groups of physicians who are high prescribers of its products. Such products include: Lexapro, its SSRI for the treatment of major depression in adults and adolescents and GAD in adults; Namenda, its NMDA antagonist for the treatment of moderate and severe Alzheimer's disease; Bystolic, its beta-blocker for the treatment of hypertension; and Savella, its newest product, an SNRI for the management of fibromyalgia. The Company's United Kingdom and Ireland subsidiaries sell both ethical products and over-the-counter preparations. Their most important products include Sudocrem, a topical preparation for the treatment of diaper rash; Colomycin, an antibiotic used in the treatment of cystic fibrosis; Infacol, used to treat infant colic; and Exorex, used in the treatment of eczema and psoriasis. The pharmaceutical industry is subject to comprehensive government regulation which substantially increases the difficulty and cost incurred in obtaining the approval to market newly proposed drug products and maintaining the approval to market existing drugs.
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