What is FX Energy Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, FX Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of FX Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, FX Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
FX Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, FX Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where FX Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
FX Energy Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
FX Energy (FRA:FX4) Business Description
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FX Energy Inc was founded in 1989. The Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with principal production, reserves, and exploration in Poland and oil production, oilfield service, and exploration activities in the United States. Company concentrates its exploration efforts in Poland on the Rotliegend sandstones of the Permian Basin. As of December 31, 2013, Company held oil and gas exploration rights in Poland in a number of separately designated project areas encompassing approximately 2.7 million gross acres. In Poland, it has projects involving the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas prospects in partnership with Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo or PGNiG, the Polish national oil and gas company, other industry partners, and for its own account. In the United States, it explores for and produces oil from fields in Montana and Nevada, and it have an oilfield services company in northern Montana that performs contract drilling and well-servicing operations. Company operates within two segments of the oil and gas industry: the exploration and production, or E&P, segment in Poland and the United States, and the oilfield services segment in the United States. The Company faces competition from larger oil and gas companies. The Companys oil and gas exploration, development, and production activities in Poland are subject to Polands laws and regulations and its United States operations are subject to governmental risks that may impact its operations.
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