What is Gramercy Property Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Gramercy Property Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Gramercy Property Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the REIT - Diversified subindustry, Gramercy Property Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Gramercy Property Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry
For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Gramercy Property Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Gramercy Property Trust's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Gramercy Property Trust Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Gramercy Property Trust (FRA:GGU1) Business Description
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Gramercy Property Trust Inc, formerly Gramercy Capital Corporation was formed in April 2004 as a Maryland corporation and it completed the initial public offering in August 2004. The Company is a self-managed, integrated commercial real estate investment and asset management company. Its business is segmented into two segments - Realty/Corporate, Asset Management. The Realty/Corporate segment includes activities related to investment and ownership of commercial properties with credit grade tenants throughout the United States. The Realty/Corporate segment generates revenues from rental revenues from properties that kit owns. The Asset Management segment includes activities related to third-party asset and property management of commercial properties leased primarily to financial institutions and affiliated users throughout the United States. The Asset Management segment generates revenues from fee income related to the Management Agreement with KBS and from its Joint Venture with Garrison. As of December 31, 2012, the Company owned directly or in joint venture, a portfolio of 116 office and industrial buildings totaling approximately 4.9 million square feet, net leased on a long-term basis to tenants, including Bank of America, Nestlé Waters, Philips Electronics and others. Its asset and property management business operates under the name Gramercy Asset Management. It currently manages approximately $1.7 billion of commercial properties leased primarily to regulated financial institutions and affiliated users throughout the United States. Additionally, it has a commercial real estate finance business which operates under the name Gramercy Finance. It manages approximately $1.7 billion of whole loans, bridge loans, subordinate interests in whole loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity and commercial mortgage-backed securities and other real estate securities which are financed through three non-recourse CDOs. It primarily competes with other REITs, specialty finance companies, insurance companies, mutual funds, hedge funds, institutional investors, investment banking firms, private equity firms, and other entities.
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