What is Ryland Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ryland Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Ryland Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Residential Construction subindustry, Ryland Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ryland Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Homebuilding & Construction Industry
For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Ryland Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ryland Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Ryland Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Ryland Group (FRA:RYG) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Ryland Group Inc is a Maryland corporation, which was founded in 1967. It is a homebuilder and a mortgage-finance company. The Company consists of six operating business segments namely four geographically determined homebuilding regions; financial services; and corporate. The Company's homebuilding operations consist of four regional reporting segments namely North, Southeast, Texas and West. The homebuilding segments specialize in the sale and construction of single-family attached and detached housing. Its operations in each of its homebuilding markets might differ due to a number of market-specific factors. These factors include regional economic conditions and job growth; land availability and local land development; consumer preferences; competition from other homebuilders; and home resale activity. The Company's financial services segment includes RMC, RH Insurance Company, Inc. or RHIC, LPS Holdings Corporation and its subsidiaries and Columbia National Risk Retention Group, Inc. or CNRRG. Corporate is a non-operating business segment whose purpose is to support operations. Corporate is responsible for establishing operational policies and internal control standards; implementing strategic initiatives; and monitoring compliance with policies and controls throughout the Company's operations. Corporate acts as an internal source of capital and provides financial, human resource, information technology, insurance, legal, marketing, national purchasing and tax compliance services. In addition, it performs administrative functions associated with a publicly traded entity. Ryland Insurance Services or RIS, a wholly-owned subsidiary of RMC, provides insurance services to the Company's homebuyers. As single-family on-site homebuilders in the United States, it operates in 17 states. The Company's homebuilding segments are subject to a number of local, state and federal laws, statutes, ordinances, rules and regulations concerning zoning, building design, construction, stormwater permitting and discharge and similar matters, as well as open space, wetlands and environmentally protected areas.
Ryland Group (FRA:RYG) Headlines
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
FRA:RYG has been successfully added to your