What is Hillshire Brands Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Hillshire Brands Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Hillshire Brands Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Hillshire Brands Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Hillshire Brands Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Hillshire Brands Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Hillshire Brands Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Hillshire Brands Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Hillshire Brands Co (LSE:HSH) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Hillshire Brands Co was organized as a corporation in Baltimore, Maryland in 1941 as The C.D. Kenny Company, was renamed Sara Lee Corporation in 1985 and adopted its current name in June 2012. It is a manufacturer and marketer of food products. It provides meat-centric food solutions for the retail and foodservice markets. The Company's Brands' portfolio includes iconic brands such as Jimmy Dean, Ball Park, Hillshire Farm, State Fair, Sara Lee frozen bakery and Chef Pierre pies, as well as artisanal brands Aidells and Gallo Salame. Its operations are organized around two business segments - Retail and Foodservice/Other. Retail sells a variety of packaged meat and frozen bakery products to retail customers in North America. Products include hot dogs and corn dogs, breakfast sausages, breakfast convenience items, including breakfast sandwiches and bowls, dinner sausages, premium deli and luncheon meats and cooked hams, as well as frozen pies, cakes, cheesecakes and other desserts. The primary raw materials for the segment's products include pork and beef, which are purchased almost entirely from third party suppliers and independent farmers, and poultry. The branded meat business is highly competitive, with an emphasis on product quality, innovation and value. New product innovations are a key component to its success. The Retail segment competes with other international, national, regional and local companies in each of the product categories. Foodservice/Other sells a variety of meat and bakery products to foodservice customers in North America. Products include hot dogs and corn dogs, breakfast sausages and sandwiches, dinner sausages, premium deli and luncheon meats, ham, beef and turkey as well as a variety of bakery products, including pastries, muffins, frozen pies, cakes and cheesecakes. The primary raw materials for Foodservice/Other's products include pork, beef and poultry and, to a lesser extent, wheat flour, sugar, corn syrup, cooking oils, butter, fruit and eggs, which are purchased from independent suppliers and farmers. The Foodservice/Other segment competes with other international, national, regional and local companies in each of its product categories. It considers major mass retailers and supermarket chains in the United States to be its most significant customers. The Company is subject to regulations administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration.
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