Saras SpA (Saras SpA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of May. 26, 2024)

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What is Saras SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Saras SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Saras SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Saras SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Saras SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Saras SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Saras SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Saras SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.07

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Saras SpA (OTCPK:SAAFF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Saras SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Saras SpA (Saras SpA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Saras SpA (OTCPK:SAAFF) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SAAFY:USA SRS:Italy SRSm:UK 0O2D:UK

Address

S.S. 195 Sulcitana, Km 19, Cagliari, Sarroch, ITA, 09018

Website

https://www.saras.it

Saras SpA is a processor of crude oil and marketer and distributor of petroleum byproducts. Refining operations are conducted at facilities located near the Mediterranean Sea. Majority of the refineries production is medium and light distillates with low environmental impact (mainly diesel and gasoline). Under Saras Trading, the company purchases crude oils and other feedstock for the refinery, sells the refined oil, and participates in third party trading. Products sold and distributed by Saras and its subsidiaries include diesel, gasoline, heating oil, liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, and aviation fuel. Products are sold primarily on Spanish and Italian markets. Additional services include wind farm operations, and engineering and scientific research services.