TUI AG (TUI AG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.08% (As of May. 05, 2024)

View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is TUI AG Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, TUI AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of TUI AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Travel Services subindustry, TUI AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

TUI AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, TUI AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where TUI AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

TUI AG Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-7.15

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.08%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

TUI AG (OTCPK:TUIFY) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

TUI AG Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of TUI AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

TUI AG (TUI AG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » TUI AG (OTCPK:TUIFY) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TUIFF:USA 1TUI1U:Italy TUIl:UK TUI:UK TUI1:Germany

Address

Karl-Wiechert-Allee 4, Hannover, SN, DEU, 30625

Website

https://www.tuigroup.com

TUI AG is a leisure and tourism company that operates airlines, cruises, tours, hotels, and resorts globally. The company organizes itself into six segments: Northern region, Central region, Western region, hotels and resorts, TUI Musement and cruises. Northern region principally comprises TUI's tour operators, airlines, and cruise business in the U.K., Ireland, and the Nordics. Central region includes the company's tour operators in Germany, Australia, Switzerland, and Poland, and the TUI fly airline. Western region includes TUI tour operators and airlines in Belgium and the Netherlands, and tour operators in France. The Northern, Central, and Western regions are the segments by revenue, in that order, and collectively constitute the vast majority of revenue.