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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's forward rate of return for was -16.08%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
The historical data trend for Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Jan06 | Jan07 | Jan08 | Jan09 | Jan10 | Jan11 | Jan12 | Jan13 | Jan14 | Jan15 | |||||||||||
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 6.09 | 10.54 | 19.64 | 5.66 | -12.77 |
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Jan11 | Apr11 | Jul11 | Oct11 | Jan12 | Apr12 | Jul12 | Oct12 | Jan13 | Apr13 | Jul13 | Oct13 | Jan14 | Apr14 | Jul14 | Oct14 | Jan15 | Apr15 | Jul15 | Oct15 | |
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -8.58 | -12.77 | -13.42 | -15.71 | -16.08 |
For the Auto Parts subindustry, Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Forward Rate of Return of Oct. 2015 is
Forward Rate of Return | = | Normalized Free Cash Flow | / | Price | + | 5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate |
= | 0.2232381 | / | 15.04 | + | -0.1756 | |
= | -16.08 % |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack (NYSE:PBY) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Andrea Weiss | director | 23 RAMRAPO COURT WEST, GLENROCK NJ 07452 |
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Robert L Nardelli | director | 2455 PACES FERRY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30339 |
Liebau Frederic Jack Jr | director | P.O. BOX 2200, PASADENA CA 91102-2200 |
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Robert Rosenblatt | director | C/O TOMMY HILFIGER USA INC, 25 W 39TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
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Bruce M Lisman | director | C/O MERCHANTS BANK, 275 KENNEDY DR, S. BURLINGTON VT 05403 |
Scott P Sider | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | THE HERTZ CORPORATION, 225 BRAE BOULEVARD, PARK RIDGE NJ 07656 |
Matthew Goldfarb | director | C/O DIEBOLD NIXDORF, INCORPORATED, 5995 MAYFAIR ROAD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720 |
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Carl C Icahn | 10 percent owner | C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160 |
Ggcp, Inc. | 10 percent owner | 189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
Gamco Investors, Inc. Et Al | 10 percent owner | 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
Mario J Gabelli | 10 percent owner | 191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
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