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Lonrho (FRA:LOY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : € (As of Jun. 09, 2024)


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What is Lonrho Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-06-09), Lonrho's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is .

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Lonrho's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Lonrho is

The historical rank and industry rank for Lonrho's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:LOY's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Conglomerates industry.
Industry Median: 0.64
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Lonrho Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Lonrho's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Lonrho Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Lonrho Annual Data
Trend Sep03 Sep04 Sep05 Sep06 Sep07 Sep08 Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Dec12
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Lonrho Semi-Annual Data
Mar02 Sep02 Mar03 Sep03 Mar05 Sep05 Mar06 Sep06 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11 Jun12 Dec12
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Lonrho's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Conglomerates subindustry, Lonrho's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Lonrho's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Conglomerates Industry

For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, Lonrho's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lonrho's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Lonrho Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.22%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = %
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = €.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Lonrho's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=*
=

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= ( - 0.11) /

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Lonrho  (FRA:LOY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Lonrho Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Lonrho (FRA:LOY) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Lonrho PLC (FRA:LOY) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Level 2, 25 Berkeley Square, London, GBR, W1J 6HB
Lonrho PLC is engaged in providing the infrastructure and services required for the growing oil, mineral and agricultural sectors in Africa. The Company has a diverse portfolio of investments across Sub-Saharan Africa in four core operating sectors: Agribusiness, Infrastructure, Hotels and Support Services. Agribusiness vertically integrates the production, sourcing, logistics, processing and distribution of agricultural products from Sub-Saharan Africa to the consumer. The division supplies to its retailers in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, the USA, Middle East, Scandinavia and the Far East. The division also distributes agricultural and heavy machinery. Infrastructure division develops and manages oil logistics terminals. Luba Freeport, the oil service terminal in the Gulf of Guinea, has attracted oil service companies to be long term tenants at the port to service offshore exploration and production rigs. The Company's Hotel division includes hotels centred on the commercial, conference and business related markets across the Continent. It owns or manages hotels in Lubumbashi and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Maputo in Mozambique, Gaborone in Botswana and Mutare in Zimbabwe. IT business is a full systems integrator and manager that designs, builds, develops and integrates IT solutions for large corporate clients, banks and governments and then undertakes management contracts to run and manage installations. The IT division is a distributor for Cisco, Microsoft, Dell and Hewlett Packard systems and equipment.

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