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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co (FRA:SEH0) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : €33.30 (As of Nov. 10, 2024)


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What is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-11-10), Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is €33.30.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co is 47.45%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:SEH0' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.31   Med: 0.63   Max: 1.51
Current: 0.55

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co was 1.51. The lowest was 0.31. And the median was 0.63.

FRA:SEH0's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked better than
79.23% of 260 companies
in the Chemicals industry
Industry Median: 1.295 vs FRA:SEH0: 0.55

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Annual Data
Trend Mar15 Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21 Mar22 Mar23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - 31.32

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Quarterly Data
Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 32.18 29.86 31.32 26.78 -

Competitive Comparison of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Chemicals subindustry, Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Chemicals Industry

For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 7%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 0.86%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 20.20%, which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = €0.711.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.2)/(1+0.07) = 1.1214953271028
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.07) = 0.97196261682243

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=0.711*46.8318
=33.30

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (33.3 - 17.50) / 33.3
= 47.45 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Shin-Etsu Chemical Co  (FRA:SEH0) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6-1, Ohtemachi 2-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 100-0004
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd is a Japan-based company primarily engaged in chemical business. The company operates in six business segments namely Poly Vinyl Chloride, Specialty Chemicals, Silicon, Semiconductor Silicon, Electronic and Functional Materials and Diversified business. It derives majority of revenue through Poly Vinyl Chloride segment which manufactures and sells vinyl chloride, caustic soda products, chloromethane and methanol. The group is also involved in manufacturing and selling of various other chemical products such as Polyvinyl alcohol, Synthetic pheromones, Rare-earth magnets for electronics industry and general applications, Photoresists, Photomask blanks and others. Geographically, it operates from the market of Japan and its business is amplifying across the globe.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Headlines

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